Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 34.281045 37.083214 40.135616 43.731427 47.883051 52.565281 58.302528
2025-04-06 29.824910 33.495346 37.756268 43.150627 49.923195 58.328007 69.864287
2025-04-13 26.705984 30.655961 35.418612 41.724577 50.087580 61.177460 77.742096
2025-04-20 25.564716 29.951528 35.434565 43.020250 53.657898 68.800108 93.707032
2025-04-27 24.577810 29.284220 35.346241 44.056145 56.894882 76.425499 111.814414
2025-05-04 23.645478 28.571796 35.080138 44.742547 59.635175 83.742518 131.865651
2025-05-11 22.523894 27.503552 34.209496 44.419487 60.721871 88.495904 148.850449
2025-05-18 21.480802 26.459767 33.273241 43.872350 61.325457 92.462970 165.838784
2025-05-25 20.459106 25.377112 32.194330 42.986246 61.216441 95.045590 180.795974
2025-06-01 19.530122 24.369250 31.151726 42.053050 60.888386 97.109919 195.527523
2025-06-08 18.617634 23.337742 30.010494 40.864081 59.956615 97.753339 206.693949
2025-06-15 18.428665 23.322109 30.364975 42.112751 63.592865 108.948188 259.384760
2025-06-22 17.808097 22.678157 29.770826 41.803147 64.394398 114.335344 299.036169
2025-06-29 17.172404 21.985638 29.067066 41.257516 64.686931 118.684885 340.835427
2025-07-06 16.407066 21.067698 27.963240 39.931059 63.238290 118.263252 359.908220
2025-07-13 16.267889 21.069664 28.292393 41.136440 67.170645 133.445800 498.226669
2025-07-20 16.081590 20.988568 28.479632 42.098967 70.756207 149.321212 711.690592
2025-07-27 15.839363 20.808753 28.492694 42.736182 73.729107 164.841085 1045.775076
2025-08-03 15.432003 20.356644 28.032474 42.436329 74.462448 173.118065 1389.654011
2025-08-10 15.011186 19.867515 27.486405 41.928266 74.622396 179.461449 1835.217744
2025-08-17 14.557180 19.311068 26.803093 41.104827 73.895851 182.140082 2289.725879
2025-08-24 14.119494 18.766737 26.118670 40.236796 72.959447 183.732603 2844.172012
2025-08-31 13.660911 18.176733 25.335913 39.129609 71.295124 181.751736 3215.654444